Marble Falls Housing Forecast

Last week, I had the privilege of serving as a panelist at the Hill Country Builders Association Housing Forecast.  Since I’ve had several requests for the material I presented, I thought I would share my notes in today’s blog.


  • Population within 10 miles of the city = 30,000
  • Primary trade area population = 68,000
  • Marble Falls proper population is 6,200—52% of this population are renters; new apartments are full with wait lists, and older properties are at 90% occupancy or more
  • 25% of the homes in Burnet County are owned by people who live outside the county; 40% of the homes in Llano County are in the same boat—this is fueled by second homes and investment properties


Sales Activity

  • 759 homes sold in 2014 (47 sales of $1 million+) – 96 in Marble Falls, 72 in Meadowlakes, 15 in Tobeyville, 19 in Cottonwood Shores, 247 in Horseshoe Bay, 24 in Highland Haven, 89 in Granite Shoals, 112 in Kingsland, 85 in Burnet
  • On average, $200,000-275,000 was the sales price across the region, but numbers were slightly higher in Kingsland ($360k) and much higher in HSB ($550k)

On the Market

  • 650 homes in the Highland Lakes area on the market, 73 of which are priced at $1 million+; 23 of these are priced at $2.5 million or more
  • 52 homes on market for “Marble Falls”—half of these are actually in the city limits
  • Of the half in the city,

o   The average list price is $317,000, and the average square footage is 2,198

o   The average price per square foot is $142

o   The average date when these homes were built is 1977

o   Only 3 homes built in the last 10 years are currently available—at an average price of $480,000

o   Contracts are pending on half of those between $160,000 and $250,000

New Construction over the Last 5 Years

  • Burnet (City)

o   109 total permits in 5 years; average value $200,000

o   2014 permit total: 31

o   Low value: $80,000; High value: $600,000

  • Horseshoe Bay

o   155 total permits in 5 years; average value $617,000

o   2014 permit total: 42

  • Burnet County

o   669 total permits in 5 years; average value $264,000

o   2014 permit total: 132

o   Low value: $8,000; High value: $2,000,000

  • Marble Falls

o   More new residential permits in 2014 than 2011, 2012, and 2013 combined—15 vs. 12

o   45 total permits over 5 years; average value $230,000

o   Low value: $50,000; High value: $875,000


Existing Lot Inventory

  • Just over 1,500 residential lots available in the Highland Lakes area

o   Horseshoe Bay (730)

o   Kingsland (261)

o   Marble Falls Area (143)

o   Burnet (137)

o   Granite Shoals, Meadowlakes, Cottonwood Shores, Highland Haven (100+)

  • Marble Falls proper lot inventory and details:

o   91 total lots

o   Average size: 0.5 acre

o   Average price: $62,706 (equates to just over $126,000 per acre)

Active and New Developments

  • Marble Falls: Mormon Mill area; Flat Rock Springs, Gregg Ranch, Wind Cliff (<$16,000/ac)
  • Burnet: Highland Oaks, Eagle’s Nest; Honey Creek
  • Horseshoe Bay: Escondido, Summit Rock

Build Marble Falls Program

  • Waiver of all permit fees and tap fees for 2014
  • City Council will consider renewing the ordinance for 2015 at their January 20th meeting


  • Summary: Regional inventory has masked underlying challenges in the market
  • Population is projected to grow by 11.6% from 2010 to 2020 in the Primary Retail Trade Area, fueled by 18-34 and over 65 residents
  • Multi-family (market-rate and age-restricted) growth
  • New single-family construction will grow slowly and continue to struggle with supply/demand ratio
  • Expansion of mid-level employment base should force more accelerated growth
  • Baylor Scott & White hospital will change the game
  • Why is this important?

o   If we don’t meet the demand for housing locally, we will be exporting some of the best paychecks earned in the Highland Lakes area

If you would like to try to become part of the solution to some of our housing challenges in Marble Falls, please get in touch with us today—we’d love to hear from you!

Christian Fletcher